What does the future hold for virtual worlds? In recent years the media spotlight on trailblazers such as Second Life helped bring virtual worlds to a mass audience. Individuals and companies were quick to jump on the bandwagon, creating avatars and immersing themselves in the emerging 3D world platforms.
Then the inevitable backlash followed - commentators were just as quick to condemn virtual worlds as a disappointing fad, lacking in purpose and mass appeal. In their place, ‘social games’ are now attracting most of the hype. The latest gold rush is based on the Farmville model - developers are rushing to create simple, addictive games primarily for social networking sites.
So, are the critics on to something? Are virtual worlds just a passing phase? Is Farmville really the holy grail of social games design?
The Trough of Disillusionment
To make sense of this it is useful to consider the Gartner ‘hype-cycle’. As new technologies emerge they attract an initial wave of positive press and attention. With this comes enthusiasm, but also unrealistic expectations. As the initial hype dies down, commentators tend to focus on the failure to meet expectations and the technology becomes less fashionable. This is known as the ‘Trough of Disillusionment’.
It is true that virtual worlds haven’t yet taken off in the way that some over-enthusiastic evangelists predicted. There have been failures along the way, There.com and Metaplace spring to mind. Yet, there is a broad group of people who are determined to explore the possibilities that the technology allows - the recent Federal Consortium for Virtual Worlds conference highlighted the growing importance of virtual worlds in the government, military and education sectors.
As the theory goes, once groups and businesses come to understand the full benefits and practical applications of the technology, they find it increasingly useful. This is known as the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’. It’s fair to say that virtual worlds are only now beginning to reach this stage. This steady growth is generally expected to last a couple of years. It is followed by the ‘Plateau of Productivity’, when the technology reaches maturity, while continuing to evolve in new ways. The Muve Design blog gives a helpful illustration of this theory.
Social Games, meanwhile remain at an earlier stage of development. They are approaching the ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations.’ With the success of Zynga and Playfish, other developers are increasingly convinced that the future of games is social. Yet their definition of social gaming is often rather narrow - think Farmville, Mafia Wars and the thousands of imitators jumping on the bandwagon.
This lack of originality is understandable - if it’s working, why change it? The free-to-play, virtual goods based model is becoming increasingly successful and will continue to gain ground as it becomes more familiar to a mass market.
But the media backlash is inevitable. We predict it to occur in early 2011. As the market becomes increasingly saturated with Farmville and Treasure Isle clones, and more outlandish claims are made about their potential for success, there are bound to be failures, disappointments and eventually, changes in strategy.
A Long History of Social Games
So if this is true, how can businesses get ahead of the curve and react to the changing environment?
Internet entrepreneur Jon Radoff posted an informative history of social games on his Internet Wonderland blog this week, accompanied by an intriguing chart tracing the antecedents of today’s games.
The piece placed the popularity of today’s games in the context of a rich tradition of social gaming. It’s an interesting point - social games are nothing new - the technological platforms have changed, but games have evolved constantly throughout history. With a deeper understanding of the history of games, we can gain a more informed insight into the future.
The technology platforms exist for social games to develop past the admittedly addictive, but frustratingly simple model that currently prevails. We anticipate a convergence between fully immersive virtual worlds and casual social games. As businesses increasingly catch on to the social gaming phenomenon, expect to see more spin-offs from popular brands, with characters from films, television, books, and toys joining in with the virtual world revolution.
As Tadhg Kelly argued in an article on Gamasutra - the Zynga model only has a limited shelf life. To develop a loyal following and to succeed in the long term, these virtual world games will need to be increasingly innovative, with greater emphasis on engaging narratives, well developed characters, appealing 3D design and more meaningful interactions between players.
What are your thoughts?
